Latest polls show Brad Bradford catching up with Olivia Chow in Toronto mayoral race

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The Toronto mayoral election is now just over a month away, and the latest polls show Councillor Brad Bradford closing the gap with Mayor Olivia Chow after a drop in her support.

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A recent Liaison Strategies survey shows Chow currently leading Bradford by seven points, down from her 11-point lead in early September. She receives support from 47 per cent of voters, compared to 50 per cent earlier in the month, while Bradford’s share of support has increased from 39 per cent to 40 per cent.

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This picture varies, however, across different parts of the city. The Liaison Strategies data reveals that the most competitive areas in Toronto are North York and Scarborough, where Chow leads Bradford 46 per cent to 41 per cent and 46 per cent to 43 per cent respectively.

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Those are much closer results than Etobicoke, where Bradford leads 54 per cent to 33 per cent, or Downtown, where Chow leads 60 per cent to 27 per cent.

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Meanwhile, there is also a sharp age divide among younger age groups. Bradford has 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters aged 18 to 34, compared with 41 per cent for Chow. Among those aged 35 to 49, however, Chow leads 57 per cent to 33 per cent.

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Despite Chow’s smaller cushion compared to previous polls, David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the latest survey results are “not enough to establish a new trend.”

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“Bradford has gained some ground without overtaking the mayor,” he said.

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Though Valentin doesn’t make suggestions about the reasons for the closing gap between Chow and Bradford, the survey did ask voters about the issues that matter most to them in the mayoral race.

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Cost of living came first at 23 per cent, followed by housing affordability at 19 per cent, crime and public safety at 17 per cent, and traffic and congestion at 13 per cent. Together, cost of living and housing account for 42 per cent of responses.

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Meanwhile, the latest Mainstreet Research survey also reveals what it calls “a tighter race” post-Labour Day and following the first mayoral debate, which took place on Sept. 14.

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Among those surveyed, 38.8 per cent said they would vote for Chow, while 31.4 per cent said they would vote for Bradford. But 13.5 per cent said they might change their vote before election day and 16.8 per cent remain undecided.

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In contrast to Valentin’s assessment, Quito Maggi, president & CEO of Mainstreet Research, said the latter two figures make the Toronto mayoral race “too close to call.”

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Elsewhere, Chris Alexander, who was once Canada’s ambassador to Afghanistan and an immigration minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper, comes in third in both polls, with 10 per cent support in the Liaison Strategies survey and 8 per cent support according to Mainstreet Research.