Marc-Olivier Fortin: Éric Duhaime is all that stands in the way of a PQ majority

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Looking at the polls, it is almost certain that Quebeckers will wake up on Tuesday to a Parti Québécois government. A majority is most likely, but the Conservative party’s growing momentum in ridings where it could take a handful of seats from the PQ, means a minority is still possible. Éric Duhaime and his Conservatives are hoping for a PQ minority. They may be hoping for the wrong outcome.

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Beyond the Quebec City area, where its support is the strongest, the Conservatives are making inroads in central Quebec and the Eastern Townships. To be in this position at this point of the campaign is already a feat. In the last election, Duhaime used the COVID crisis to his advantage. Despite winning more than 500,000 votes, his party failed to win a single seat. Nobody would have thought, in a parliamentary system, that a party with no seat would be able to stay relevant for four years and be competitive heading into the next election.

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Not only did he remain relevant, but Duhaime, more often than not, was able to set the agenda and suggest innovative solutions to decades-long problems. He recruited a full slate of candidates and built a very good and disciplined campaign. He offered a real contrast with Quebec’s political status quo, calling for the complete elimination of business subsidies and promising the largest tax cuts in the province’s history. He also proposed $47 billion in total spending cuts over five years. Duhaime talked about initiatives to increase Quebec’s birth rate by giving families greater choices in daycare, education and health care, and he did not hesitate to offer private-sector solutions. There is no doubt that Duhaime ran a successful campaign offering a bold and sharp contrast with the status quo.

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Unlike its federal counterpart, which operates largely within existing economic models, favouring boutique tax credits, the Quebec Conservatives are trying to break the mould.

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The party is now sitting at 17 per cent in the Quebec125 average as of Friday, 13 points behind the PQ. It is projected to win 15 seats in the 127 seat National Assembly. The last Conservative MNA was elected in 1935.

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Ahead of Monday’s election, Duhaime has been calling for strategic voting, claiming he is the only one who can stop Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, or PSPP, from winning a majority government. However, a word of caution; so far, Duhaime has been patient and has built a smart movement with limited resources. From what I hear on the ground, party operatives think they can pull off a couple of upsets in a few ridings that would be enough to deny the PQ a majority, but this could be too much too fast.

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Consider the Action démocratique du Québec’s experience in 2007. Like the CAQ in 2018, the ADQ presented itself as a third option between federalism and separatism. It was an autonomist party offering some right-of-centre solutions. In 2007, the party went from four seats to 41, and became the official Opposition in a minority parliament.