Marc-Olivier Fortin: The once mighty Quebec Liberals are disintegrating

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In politics, when you can’t differentiate yourself from the pack, indifference is all that remains. And it is no coincidence that this indifference, this political apathy, is reflected in how the electorate feels towards the Liberals at the moment. In fact, a recent Pallas poll shows that the “neutral opinion” of Charles Milliard is on the rise during this campaign unlike all of his competitors.

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Between the federalist vote leaving to the CAQ, and fiscally focused voters splitting between the CAQ and the Conservatives, the Liberals are caught in a pincer movement, fighting a war on multiple fronts.

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This situation brings back memories of Kim Campbell’s 1993 Progressive Conservative party, squeezed between the newly formed Reform party of fiscal conservatives and a Bloc Québécois born from Quebec nationalists. Trying to balance nothing and everything, Campbell ended up with only two seats.

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Going into the election, pundits expected the Liberals to win at least 40 seats, representing a third of the National Assembly. What was once seen as the floor, is quickly becoming the ceiling.

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Political campaigns run on a war chest that only shrinks: time, money and volunteers. Milliard, who is himself running in the Eastern Township riding of Orford, is in danger of losing his own riding. The Liberals nonetheless continue to barnstorm the whole province, spreading itself thin, preaching its message to increasingly deaf ears while squandering precious resources.

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Off the record, a well-sourced campaign insider speaks of the inexperienced team, outdated voter-ID and get-out-the-vote tools, and operators who haven’t run a campaign in over a decade that are largely to blame for the strategy or lack of one. The playbook should have been simple: reconquer historical strongholds, win 40 seats and hold fast as the government in waiting. For a leader barely a year into the job, that would have been the perfect springboard back to power.

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Earlier this week, Milliard admitted he wants to see changes in his communication strategy. Not long after, surrounded by Quebec flags, he recorded a quick video promising to bring an economic plan to address tariffs, focused on improving productivity. Whether it will have an effect or not, time will tell, but it is clear that Milliard knows something is not working.

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The Liberals, so accustomed to winning, now seem to have forgotten how to do so. The only hope Milliard has left is to surprise electors during the leaders debate on Sept. 15, which he can still certainly do. Milliard is sharp. But being sharp is not enough. He needs to make voters feel something. If he shows some fight, some grit, and makes himself look like a premier-in-waiting, the race could shift.

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If not, the party risks surrendering its historical dominance to the CAQ for the foreseeable future, and perhaps permanently.

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Marc-Olivier Fortin is the former national Vice-President of the Conservative Party of Canada (2016-2018) and campaign manager for the CPC in Quebec (2021). He is now a regular commentator at RDI and on COGECO radio and works for Transfert, a firm specialized in social acceptability in mining, energy and heavy industry sectors.

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