FIRST READING: Stunning byelection upset may portend Alberta conservative fracture

Article content

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” reads the draft ballot question.

Article content

Kenney has long been one of Alberta’s most vocal anti-independence voices, and he wrote on Tuesday that the separatist campaign was causing “patriotic conservative voters to support the Liberals and NDP.”

Article content

“A vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election,” he said.

Article content

Among the pro-independence camp, the prognosis was similar – although for different reasons.

Article content

Corey Morgan, a Calgary-based separatist commentator who literally wrote The Sovereigntist’s Handbook, also claimed that the issue of independence swung Calgary-Shaw for the NDP.

Article content

But he blamed the result on Premier Smith’s strategy of approving the Oct. 19 referendum while actively campaigning for a federalist victory. The result being, he said, that a not-insignificant cohort of pro-independence UCP supporters are now souring on the party.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

But he also cautioned fellow separatists against the notion that Smith should endorse independence outright.

Article content

“This byelection showed that would be political suicide,” he said. “There isn’t enough bloody support for a party to do that yet.”

Article content

Although Smith’s office didn’t directly credit the independence issue for the Calgary-Shaw loss, a spokesperson did make reference to a “split” in conservative sentiments.

Article content

“A split of the conservative vote along with a low overall turnout were the primary reason for the byelection result,” Sam Blackett, a spokesperson for the premier, said in a statement.

Article content

Although the Alberta independence cause has enjoyed a notable renaissance since Prime Minister Mark Carney won the 2025 federal election, polls have consistently shown that outright independence remains broadly unpopular among voters.

Article content

An Abacus Data poll published this week found that 64 per cent of Alberta voters intended to vote against the “proceed” option in the Oct. 19 referendum.

Article content

And even among those who plan to endorse a second vote on independence, just two-thirds said they were committed to voting yes. “That puts the separatist vote at 18 per cent of Albertans,” read an accompanying analysis.

Article content

Article content

But the separatist/federalist split is almost entirely reserved to Albertans who vote conservative.

Article content

Last month, an Angus Reid Institute poll found just 33 per cent of Albertans endorsing a “binding” referendum on separation, with 61 per cent favouring the “Alberta should remain a province of Canada” option.

Article content

But among those Albertans who voted UCP, the ratios were swapped, with a clear majority of 60 per cent favouring the ballot option for a binding independence referendum.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Article content

One of the most telling indicators from the Calgary-Shaw results is the 978 voters who marked a ballot for the “Progressive Tories,” an upstart political party that has framed itself as an explicitly anti-independence conservative option.

Article content

Had all those 978 voted UCP instead, it would have been enough to deny the NDP the riding.

Article content

Article content

IN OTHER NEWS

Article content

Canadian federal politics has been dominated this week by a “will they/won’t they” drama playing out between Ottawa and the European Union.

Article content

Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Prime Minister Mark Carney was seeking to make Canada an “associate member” of the EU. This caused Carney to publicly deny the report, saying he’s actually seeking a “unique alliance” with the European body, rather than associate membership.