Alberta NDP Flips Riding From UCP in Byelection

The Alberta NDP has won the Calgary-Shaw byelection, with candidate Kyle Campbell defeating United Conservative Party (UCP) candidate Mike Derry in a riding that has long been a conservative stronghold.

Campbell received 7,461 votes compared with Derry’s 6,879, while Progressive Tory Party of Alberta candidate Kyle Joseph received 978 votes in the Sept. 14 byelection.

Alberta Liberal candidate John Roggeveen received 602 votes, or just under 4 percent of the total, while Independent candidate Rolly Ashdown received 82 votes, or 0.51 per cent, according to unofficial results from Elections Alberta.

Campbell’s campaign focused on improving access to health care, increasing affordability, supporting public education, and opposing Alberta’s separation from Canada, while Derry centred messaging on improving the province’s economy, health care, and education.

“This opportunity is a chance to live what I believe in my heart, which is leadership is about service,” Campbell told supporters Sept. 14 following announcement of his victory.

Official results for the byelection are scheduled to be announced Sept. 24, according to Elections Alberta.

The riding of Calgary-Shaw was created in 1986 and first elected Progressive Conservative Jim Dinning as its MLA. It has subsequently been represented primarily by right-of-centre parties, with the NDP holding the seat from 2015 to 2019.

UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz represented the riding from 2019 until her resignation took effect in May of this year. She had resigned from cabinet in January and said she planned to pursue other career opportunities.

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi commented on Campbell’s impending victory on the evening of Sept. 14.

“We lost in this riding in 2019 by 40 points. This was considered one of the safest, if not the safest, Conservative seats in Calgary,” Nenshi told supporters, adding, “Tonight … you all have proved something. There are no safe Conservative seats in Calgary.”

After Campbell’s victory was announced, Nenshi called it an “earthquake” and tied the result to the province’s upcoming Oct. 19 referendum.

The referendum question asks Albertans whether the government should commence the legal process required to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada. The Oct. 19 vote itself is not a vote on separation.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly said she opposes Alberta separatism and favours the province remaining in Canada.

Smith has said the referendum is intended to allow Albertans to vote on the question after hundreds of thousands of residents signed petitions seeking a vote.

“I look at 400,000 people who signed a [petition] saying that they wanted to vote to remain in Canada. And I look at 300,000 people who signed a petition saying the opposite. That’s 700,000 Albertans. That is 25 percent of all voting age Albertans in the province. Clearly, they want to have this debate.” Smith said May 22.

“Just because you acknowledge frustration, it doesn’t mean it goes away if you ignore it,” she added.

For his part, Campbell said that the issue of Alberta’s potential separation from Canada came up during his campaign.

“Under the surface was always people are proud Canadians,” Campbell told media, adding “They don’t want the referendum, and they wished the government would focus on what really mattered in everyday lives of Albertans.”

The latest poll on the subject from Abacus Data, released Sept. 15, found that 64 percent of Albertans would vote for the province to stay in Canada, while 24 percent would vote for the government to begin the process of holding a separation referendum.