Commentary
The only certainties in life are death, taxes, and infighting among Canadian conservatives. Political ambitions often overwhelm notions of unity and loyalty among partisan conservatives, and some sniping among factions in the conservative parties is beginning to surface. Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre is not only challenged by trying to turn the party’s fortunes around while Mark Carney’s Liberal government appears ever stronger, but must also watch his flank from operatives within his own party.
Conservatives were shattered in 2025 when what appeared to be a near-certain electoral victory in January turned into a crushing defeat in April. A case could be made that the loss was due to outside factors rather than political leadership. The trade war sparked by President Trump’s tariffs and the departure of Justin Trudeau made it difficult for the Conservatives, who had been planning a campaign based on the consumer carbon tax (which Carney repealed) and questioning the past performance of the Liberal government. Carney’s campaign convinced Canadians that the government was refreshing itself and he was better placed to stand up against Trump than the Conservatives, who were perceived as being more American-friendly.
Conservatives were willing to accept that Poilievre had been caught by bad timing and perhaps some bad campaign advice. He was given leeway and time to recover and establish the party as an alternative to the government. With over a year since the election, not only has the Conservative Party not recovered in opinion polls, but defections from the party have given Carney the means to build a majority government.
In-fighting
While provincial conservative parties are autonomous from the federal entity, there is a great deal of overlap among operatives within them. The leadership race for the Conservative Party of British Columbia became a proxy battleground for eastern and western Canadian conservative factions.
The latest flare-up occurred at the Calgary Stampede. Poilievre, introducing the newly elected B.C. Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay, praised her “big win against Liberal lobbyists from out east.” The line was widely understood as a dig at Kory Teneycke, who is Doug Ford’s longtime campaign manager and the strategist behind Caroline Elliott’s near miss in the B.C. leadership race. Elliott responded directly on social media, saying that she had supported Poilievre and urging the party to “unite, not divide.” Teneycke and other Ford-world operatives fired back. Nick Kouvalis, another prominent Ontario Progressive Conservative strategist, went further still. The exchange spilled into columns, podcasts, and caucus chatter about morale within the party tanking.
Some prominent conservative figures appear to be testing the water. Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has suddenly become outspoken on federal issues, though he has adamantly denied federal ambitions. Premier Doug Ford hasn’t directly expressed interest in the top federal job either, but some members of his team would like him to go that way. If Poilievre’s position continues to look weaker, potential aspirants to his job will become less subtle.
Analytically, for those who may want to have Poilievre replaced as the party leader, the best time to move would be now. If they can manage to pressure the Conservative leader out of office and have a new leader in place by spring, it would leave them two years to prepare for the next general election. If they wait another year, the timeline may appear too short, and members could rally around the current leader. It would be a gamble, though, as a push to oust Poilievre could also tear the party apart.
Poilievre dearly needs some sort of victory, and the opportunities haven’t been presenting themselves. The Carney government has operated carefully and hasn’t presented serious slip-ups for Poilievre to gain traction from. Byelections can offer a party a chance to present itself as a government in waiting, and three of them are about to be held. But unfortunately for Mr. Poilievre, at least two of them are in ridings where the Conservatives stand little to no chance of winning.
The self-destructive conservative tendency to tear down its own leaders is difficult to fend off when it takes root. Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole both served short tenures before being pulled down by their own members. Even when conservatives win office, they are vulnerable to internal party dissent. In Alberta, the sitting premiers of Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, and Jason Kenney were all removed by their party members despite winning general elections.
Pierre Poilievre is entering a tenuous period in his leadership. He must maintain both party solidarity and start making gains in public support. If he can’t achieve the latter soon, the former will be impossible.
Replacing Poilievre comes with risks for the Conservatives. A fresh face may endear the party to the electorate, but the perception of party instability and disloyalty may sour voters further. If the Conservative Party of Canada wants to win the next election, it must begin looking more like a government-in-waiting and less like a circular firing squad. If only the prickly nature of conservative supporters would let them do so.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
