Geoff Russ: Sweden’s left does U-turn on immigration, wins government

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Sweden has fallen to the left, many online commentators have lamented.

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More accurately, Swedish voters have simply returned to form, choosing progressive parties at the expense of the right. After all, Sweden did not gain its reputation as a social democratic stronghold because its voters historically favoured conservatives.

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The “Red-Green” opposition alliance and its liberal sidekicks have narrowly defeated the centre-right Moderate Party and its nationalist Sweden Democrat allies and other partners in the “Tidö” bloc. The Red-Green bloc is likely to hold 176 seats, compared with 173 for the Tidö parties.

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Former prime minister Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, the largest party in the Swedish parliament, will likely return to office. Immigration was a top issue, with opposition to mass immigration and ethnic minority enclaves animating supporters of both the Tidö bloc and the Social Democrats.

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Now, it is clear that the voters from an immigrant background overwhelmingly rejected the right, and that had an impact in such a tight contest. However, the right’s failure to make inroads with working and middle-class voters who have traditionally voted for the Social Democrats mattered more.

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Assuming the Social Democrats do not renege on their campaign promises, Sweden will remain alongside Denmark among the countries with the toughest policies on migration, asylum and integration, with deportation programs on the table.

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The Social Democrats, Moderates, and Sweden Democrats have reached a consensus, particularly on returning unsuccessful asylum claimants to their countries of origin and deporting foreign criminals more effectively.

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Andersson’s party has demanded that newcomers speak Swedish and have a thorough understanding of the country’s civic life to qualify for permanent residency. She has also pledged to tightly control labour immigration and limit asylum provisions to the minimum required by the European Union.

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The Social Democrats had some quibbles with the Moderate-led government over revoking permanent residency, it is true. But there will be no return to the open-door policies of the 2010s that unsettled Swedish society and helped make it one of Europe’s most gang-ridden countries.

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This new consensus has upset some progressive Swedes, who lament that strict entry rules mean the country has “lost its soul.”

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Denmark’s left-of-centre government, headed by Mette Frederiksen, has implemented one of Europe’s toughest migration programs, coupling restrictions with demanding integration requirements and a strict deportation policy.

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Just this year, the Danish parliament strengthened deportation provisions for foreign nationals sentenced to at least a year in prison for serious crimes. A decade ago, such policies would have been attacked as a lurch to the far right. Now, they are championed by capital-S Social Democrats who believe bad actors do not deserve a share of the welfare state.

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It is an effective, straightforward political strategy that acknowledges voters’ opposition to soft borders, allowing elections to be fought on jobs and the economy. Andersson looks set to ride that approach back to power.