Heather Exner-Pirot: Carney’s oil and gas renaissance

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A newfound acceptance of Canadian oil and gas was revealed when Mark Carney campaigned on making Canada an energy superpower in the 2025 election. Many were skeptical that the federal Liberals could make the changes necessary for the oil and gas sector to grow. It became a popular joke that we were getting MOUs instead of FIDs (Final Investment Decisions). Carney was criticized for making great speeches but not progress.

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It is time to acknowledge that many policies have indeed been improved and that the Canadian oil and gas sector is once again investable; competitive even. What has changed on the ground?

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The term energy superpower was popularized by Stephen Harper in 2006 when the oilsands were emerging as an enormous, and investable, resource. The shale revolution eventually overtook oilsands growth, and the Trudeau government destroyed the investability of Canadian greenfield oil and gas projects with a series of policies that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has coined the nine bad laws. But when U.S. President Donald Trump called Canada the 51st state, oil and gas suddenly became popular in Canada, and the public wanted our resources to be unleashed.

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Throughout 2025, the Building Canada Act (Bill C-5), Major Projects Office, and memorandum of understanding with Alberta provided a welcome shift in tone. But the first meaningful policy change the Carney government made was to scrap the cap in November 2025, and confirm that the federal government would not move ahead with its proposed oil and gas sector emissions cap.

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While the Trudeau government never did finalize the regulations to cap and cut emissions in the sector by 35 per cent by 2030, the threat of the cap served as a sword of Damocles and pre-empted new LNG terminals and pipelines. Both Enbridge and Trans Mountain announced they would seek pipeline expansions in the month it was axed.

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The next big move was to allow a carve-out of natural gas-fired electricity generation from the Trudeau-era Clean Electricity Regulations (CER). Note that electricity falls squarely in provincial jurisdiction (the regulations are being challenged in court as unconstitutional for this reason), and utilities have warned that the CER would lead to blackouts when peak demand inevitably hit on cold and dark January nights. The CER also meant Canada missed out on the first wave of global data centre investment, one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in modern history.

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In the months since new natural gas generation became allowed in Canada once again, Alberta has announced a$17.6 billionAI data centre and energy project, and Saskatchewan has announced one worth$50 billion. More announcements are on their way.