Is the trade war driving American NHL stars out of Canada?

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The Panthers’ pedigree of back-to-back Stanley Cups and a chance to play with older brother Matthew — who’d requested a trade from the Calgary Flames in 2022 — were big draws for Tkachuk, according to NHL.com

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Counting Florida-born defenceman Quinn Hughes, the number of departing players from the U.S. squad that defeated Canada in the February gold medal Olympic final rises to three.

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The Vancouver Canucks traded the two-time All-Star to the Minnesota Wild on Dec. 12, 2025, after he indicated months earlier that he wouldn’t renew his contract, due to expire in 2027, TSN reported.

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Michael Naraine, associate professor of sport management at Brock University, said NHL players may be drawn to certain U.S. clubs — the Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, or Dallas Stars, for example — for a “multitude” of reasons unrelated to the trade war.

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“Would we be talking about this if not for the trade war? Probably not, but I think the trade war has certainly elevated the star players wanting out and not just wanting out, but wanting out to specific destinations,” he told National Post.

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Part of it is the “glamour” of their preferred destination.

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He said NHLers, like their NBA brethren, operate in an “isomorphic” or “monkey see, monkey do” way, in that when they see a friend or former teammate find success with a club, they’ll want to join them.

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At the same time, for NHL players, moving to an American market affords them a degree of anonymity they might not find under the intense media and fan scrutiny in Canada.

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“If Brady (Tkachuk) walks down Elgin Street in Ottawa, everyone’s gonna know who he is,” Naraine said. “Brady Tkachuk could walk down the streets of Florida and no one is going to know who the heck he is.”

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Taxes are clearly a factor, with multiple states charging an income tax rate of zero per cent, he noted, which makes states like New York or Illinois, Democratic states with higher taxes, a less appealing destination.

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On the subject of taxes, Naraine said many players are “spooked” by Toronto Maple Leafs’ John Tavares’ court battle with the Canada Revenue Agency.

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Tavares argues that the millions of dollars he received for signing with the team were legitimate signing bonuses designed to entice him to come to Canada and therefore deserve special tax treatment. The CRA counters that they were really just salary dressed up as bonuses, meaning the player would owe millions more in taxes.

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Should the CRA win and limit teams’ ability to offer those bonuses, Naraine expects smaller-market Canadian teams like Ottawa, Vancouver and Winnipeg will “really struggle.”

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While that may not be the case for Hellebuyck, Naraine said the Tavares situation could prompt more agents to advise their clients that “maybe now’s the time to strike while the iron’s hot and get out, make things even keel, get to a place where you feel more comfortable.”

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Naraine also posited that what’s happening with American NHL players is akin to a shift that took place in the NBA following the 2008 Summer Olympics.

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Bonds were forged as the best U.S. players came together to dominate on their way to a gold medal, and two years later LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh reunited to form one of the NBA’s first super teams. Naraine thinks similar friendships were formed in the U.S. Olympic men’s team locker room.

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“I wouldn’t be surprised if like three or four of these guys in a couple of years go, ‘look, let’s all go to Seattle, make bank, and live it up and just make a powerhouse squad’ or ‘let’s all go to L.A.’ or ‘let’s all go to Dallas,’” he said.

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