John Ivison: Swapping U.S. trade for Europe could move Canada from the Titanic to the Hindenburg

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Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “forward guidance” videos have proven adept at fostering populist tactics in the services of mainstream politics.

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Voters across the western world have been drawn to conspiracy theories and demagogues because they fear that nobody is in control. In this series of videos, Carney has presented a calm, reassuring face to the world, telling Canadians that their “improbable country” will “pivot and prosper” in the face of the trade war with the Americans.

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The world is not rudderless and he is at the helm, he indicated speaking in a 15-minute video this week, speaking directly to the camera throughout.

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He does not follow the populist playbook of promising painless solutions to complicated problems. “This won’t be easy and I won’t pretend otherwise,” he said.

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But he radiates an assurance and tenacity that few others could match.

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He is right. Canada is likely to emerge from this episode stronger and more resilient than ever. But that does not mean the plan is foolproof.

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He said the response to the latest U.S. tariffs has three legs: retaliatory tariffs; supporting Canadians; and trade diversification.

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Retaliation is popular, but is it necessary or wise? University of Toronto economics professor Joseph Steinberg asked in a post on X  Wednesday whether Canada’s economy would be stronger or weaker if it had not retaliated at all. He said he supports Carney’s decision to walk away from the deal last month (as do I). But he argued it did not necessarily justify retaliatory tariffs, like the latest round that took effect Tuesday. “Those are two different things,” he said.

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On diversification, Carney talked about directing more trade to “trusted partners.”

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Carney is due to join European Union president Ursula von der Leyen in Strasbourg, France next week to announce a plan to deepen trade and security ties between Canada and the EU.

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It is logical that Canada is looking for alternatives to President Donald Trump’s kleptocracy — he noted in his video that Canada now has tariff-free access to 1.5-billion consumers and will double that over the next six months, indicating that a deal with India is close.

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But reducing dependence on America to replace it with Europe may be like being rescued from the Titanic by the Hindenburg.

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The far-right Alternative for Germany party has just won a state election in Saxony-Anhalt and leads in national polls. It is seeking to exit the EU, abandon the euro, and restore ties with Moscow.

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In France, the populist-right National Rally is ahead in the polls and its candidate Marine Le Pen is the frontrunner in the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron as president next year.

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While Britain is not part of the EU, Reform UK is neck and neck with the ruling Labour Party in most polls.