More than 460,000 Australians living in rental accommodation could be at risk of losing their tenancy, according to a new report that warns the number has risen sharply over the past year.
The report, Two Tides of Homelessness, released this week by the Tenancy Skills Institute, is based on surveys of 327 property managers who manage nearly 126,000 tenancies.
It found that 6.43 percent of tenancies surveyed were classed as “at risk of failing” in 2026, up from 4.84 percent in the same survey last year—an increase of almost a third.
Across Australia, that equates to 466,172 people living in at-risk households. Including New Zealand, the figure rises to 564,433 people potentially vulnerable to homelessness, up 139,572 from a year ago.
At a recent inquiry hearing, the Australian Alliance to End Homelessness told a Senate committee that homelessness has far-reaching consequences, with around nine homeless people dying each day from potentially avoidable causes and homelessness reducing life expectancy by as much as 30 years.
Veterans are particularly at risk, experiencing homelessness at a rate almost three times higher than the general population.
The authors noted that the survey sample was drawn through real estate industry networks rather than selected at random and did not track the same properties, meaning the figures are best read as an indication of the scale and direction of the problem rather than a precise national count.
Reasons for At-Risk Tenancies
Rental arrears remained the single biggest reason property managers gave for a tenancy being at risk, cited in 37 percent of cases, down from 57 percent last year.
This was followed by landlords selling properties or otherwise reducing the availability of rental stock (25 percent), and rents becoming unaffordable (14 percent).
Those shifts, the report argued, point to a problem driven by structural pressures—including cash rate rises and changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax—rather than solely by tenants falling behind.
The data varies considerably across the states. Western Australia recorded the steepest rise, with at-risk tenancies soaring by 150 percent to 13 percent, while Queensland saw a 77.5 percent increase, with 7.1 percent of tenancies now at risk. Victoria was the only state to record a fall, down 24.2 percent.
The Northern Territory fared the worst, with 14 percent of tenancies rated as vulnerable and 47.1 percent of vulnerable tenancies in rent arrears.
In Tasmania, rental affordability was the primary factor behind 55.56 percent of at-risk tenancies, vastly higher than in any other state or territory.
Can Early Intervention Help Tenants at Risk?
The report also looks at whether tenancies that failed in the past year could have been saved.
Property managers reported that 3,114 tenancies had collapsed in the past year due to unresolved breaches. They estimated that more than half—about 1,626, representing around 4,000 people—could have been saved if the right support had reached the households in time.
A case study from Queensland, where some property managers had access to a dedicated online referral tool linking them to homelessness services, supports that claim.
Property managers using the referral pathway reported a failure rate of 1.42 percent, versus 3.75 percent among those without it—a gap the report’s authors say demonstrates the value of getting support to at-risk renters before a tenancy collapses entirely, rather than after.
A Queensland homelessness service, CASA Mackay, reported a 90 percent success rate in sustaining tenancies when referrals were received early.
“Tenancy sustainment is cheaper and better for everyone. It’s better for the taxpayer, better for our staff, and it saves the client from reaching crisis point,” said the organisation’s general manager, William Stafford.
Yet, the report also found property managers’ engagement with early intervention has decreased. The proportion who said they knew of support services for at-risk tenants fell from 80.8 percent to 69.1 percent over the year, and support for using a simple online referral tool dropped from 89 percent to 76 percent.
“A failed tenancy can be the point at which financial hardship becomes homelessness,” said Jacob Caine, president of the Real Estate Institute of Australia, who contributed to the report.
“It can uproot children from their schools and communities, make it harder for someone to maintain employment, compound illness or family breakdown, and cause trauma that continues long after housing is restored.”
The Epoch Times has contacted the Minister for Housing and Homelessness, Clare O’Neil, for comment.
