Oil Retreats on Gulf Supply Hopes Even as Diesel Markets Tighten

Oil prices held near two-week lows on Sept. 23 as rising crude supplies from the Persian Gulf and hopes for Middle East diplomacy eased supply concerns, while diesel refining margins hit a record high amid fears of U.S. export restrictions.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.33, or 1.34 percent, to $100.58 per barrel by 9:03 a.m. ET, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained 65 cents, or 0.72 percent, to $91.17.

Brent had briefly fallen below $98 per barrel on Sept. 22, its weakest level in more than two weeks, while West Texas Intermediate earlier on Sept. 23 touched its lowest price since the beginning of the month.

While crude prices have weakened, diesel markets have continued moving in the opposite direction.

The premium for European low-sulfur gasoil over Brent crude climbed to a record high after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sept. 22 publicly backed a ban on U.S. diesel exports.

Asked about calls from several Republican senators for a diesel export ban during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations, Trump said he has also called for a ban.

Global Issue

Some analysts warn that restricting exports would likely do little to lower energy costs while risking further disruptions to already strained global fuel markets.

PDI Technologies’ petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said a temporary export ban would likely offer only limited relief to U.S. consumers while creating broader disruptions to global fuel markets.

De Haan said the United States remains a structural surplus producer of diesel and that domestic prices are largely determined by global supply and demand, not U.S. production alone.

“The U.S. is not short of diesel. The world is,” he wrote in a Sept. 21 post on LinkedIn.

The analyst said an export ban could reduce refinery utilization over time and tighten supplies of other fuels such as gasoline.

Price spikes, De Haan said, are driven largely by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia, one of the most significant diesel producers, as well as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to Ukrainian drone attacks, Moscow suspended diesel exports in July, further tightening global supplies.

Ukraine’s expanding campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has drawn criticism from Trump, who has urged Kyiv to stop attacking refineries.

Trump said in mid September that he had asked Zelenskyy to stop attacking Russian refining facilities because the strikes were pushing diesel prices to record highs. He said on Sept. 21 that Russia had lost control of its diesel industry because of the war.

Zelenskyy responded that Ukraine was prepared to reciprocate if Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian energy facilities, critical infrastructure, and food exports.

Gulf Supplies

Some Persian Gulf producers are increasing exports despite continued tensions in the Middle East.

Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair said on Sept. 22 that Iraq is exporting more than 3 million barrels of oil per day and expects exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal to exceed 600,000 barrels per day as export capacity expands despite ongoing regional challenges.

Adding to expectations of improving supplies, think tank ING stated in a Sept. 23 market note that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline had restarted operations.

ING analysts said the pipeline could soon resume exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing crude shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

The pipeline owner, Aramco, has not publicly confirmed that operations have resumed. The Epoch Times contacted the company for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Trump warned on Sept. 22 that he could annihilate Iran, but he also said his envoys had held productive talks with ⁠Iran via mediators.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran had engaged with Washington through a Qatari mediator and conveyed conditions, including an end to the war on all fronts and a halt to U.S. “acts of aggression.”

Reuters contributed to this post.