The popularity of Alberta’s United Conservative Party has fallen just weeks before the referendum on separation, according to a new poll.
Alberta-based pollster Janet Brown Public Opinion Research found support for the UCP slipping in a survey of 1,200 Albertans conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21.
The UCP’s position dropped by eight points since Brown’s last poll in April, leaving the governing party neck-and-neck with the opposition NDP. Forty-one per cent of respondents said they would vote for the UCP if the election were held today, the same proportion as those who said they would vote for the NDP.
Brown says the decline in UCP support, together with a five-point surge in favour of the NDP, has resulted in the best numbers for the opposition since the election in 2023.
“After the election, Naheed Nenshi always had a difficult time digging in and having his message heard. I think the separation referendum has given the NDP a clear message to campaign on,” said Brown in an interview with Canada’s National Observer.
Brown suggests that NDP gains are rooted in the consensus within the party on separation. According to Brown’s poll, 98 per cent of NDP voters plan to vote to remain.
UCP voters are far more divided, with 53 per cent reporting that they plan to vote to begin the legal process of separation and 40 per cent planning to vote to remain.
Across all voters, support for the remain position rose by four points to 73 per cent in the latest survey, while support for the separation position dropped to 23 per cent. Only four per cent of Albertans reported that they were still undecided.
Smith personal popularity drops
Contention within the UCP has surfaced publicly in recent weeks, when party president Rob Smith made comments on social media alleging that the premier agreed to maintain a neutral stance on the question in government advertising.
Premier Danielle Smith disagreed with his account. In comments Monday, Smith restated her support for the remain position and described her position as her party’s formal stance.
In the Highwood constituency, Smith’s former riding, UCP board member Helen Holder endorsed a call for a leadership review.
Smith’s personal popularity dropped six points in the recent polls.
“Danielle Smith is trying to lead this coalition of voters that includes both separatist and non-separatists, and I think she’s struggling right now,” said Brown. “I think she’s in this difficult position while she’s trying to keep the very diverse people that make up her tent in the tent.”
The intra-party division is opening the door for unexpected NDP wins, says Brown, like the surprise victory by NDP candidate Kyle Campbell in a Calgary by-election earlier this month.
“You look at these numbers and it suggests that whatever was happening in Calgary-Shaw, there are probably ripples across the province, and in Calgary in particular.”
Numbers in Calgary are especially striking, with the city posting a 10-point drop in support for the UCP since the spring.
The significant swing in party popularity has not been reflected in opinions on separation, which have remained largely stable across several polls over the past 18 months.
While most Alberta voters appear to be resolved on their position on separation, opinions are much more fluid on the other nine questions. Brown said half of all respondents said they weren’t yet sure how they would vote on the remaining questions.
“I think the findings really speak to the fact that the last few weeks of the campaign are about the other nine questions,” she said.
September 25th 2026
