Geoff Russ: This election is for the B.C. Conservatives’ taking

Article content

Does it really matter if voters are unhappy about the upcoming snap election in British Columbia?

Article content

Yes, it certainly will not help Premier David Eby, who triggered an early contest on Sunday. But irritated voters will not be enough for the BC Conservatives to form government.

Article content

Article content

Eby is bringing voters to the polls early on Oct. 24, well before the fixed election date in 2028. His reasoning is that the province needs a strong majority government to deal with President Donald Trump. If early reactions are any indicator, few are buying it. People can see right through this rice-paper-thin cover for an opportunistic contest.

Article content

Article content

However, recent snap elections that were equally opportunistic did not end in disaster for the incumbents. People may dislike being swept up in an unnecessary early campaign, but that is different from deciding which party will govern.

Article content

Article content

In February 2025, Ontario Premier Doug Ford used Trump’s “51st state” rhetoric and threats of economic warfare to call an early election, more than a year before the scheduled 44th general election.

Article content

According to Angus Reid at the time, 78 per cent of respondents thought that the early election served Ford’s interests, rather than Ontario’s, including 58 per cent of those who planned to vote for his Progressive Conservative government. Ford went on to secure another majority mandate. Evidently, Ontario voters could hold their noses and look past a dirty trick.

Article content

By contrast, when Justin Trudeau called an early federal election in 2021, Abacus Data found that 34 per cent of previous Liberal voters said they were less likely to vote Liberal again because of it. Trudeau still retained his minority government but failed in his bid to secure a parliamentary majority, despite very favourable pre-election polling. The composition of the House of Commons itself remained largely unchanged when the contest was over.

Article content

Article content

Irritated voters in B.C. are not automatically rebellious, though half of them believe it is time for a change in government. The survey that produced that finding was conducted just before the B.C. Conservatives collapsed, then rebuilt and re-energized themselves on the fly.

Article content

Article content

When David Eby began to signal that he was going to call an early election, the (in)famous Kerry-Lynne Findlay was still heading the B.C. Conservatives. The long list of controversies that plagued her four-month tenure is already the stuff of legend.

Article content

One pollster put Findlay’s approval rating at just 17 per cent. That number probably fuelled Eby’s lust for an early contest to secure another four years as premier and avoid being replaced as NDP leader.

Article content

Then, on Sunday, Findlay was out. Her relatively unknown successor, Lorne Doerkson, the MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin, leading the Conservatives into the election. Former rebel MLA Peter Milobar and six other MLAs who jumped ship under Findlay have since returned to the fold. Doerkson himself wasted no time explicitly condemning Donald Trump. If he keeps that up, the NDP’s hopes of using an anti-Trump strategy could be dashed.