How the desire for change and the fear of a referendum are shaping the Quebec election

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OTTAWA — The Quebec election campaign is already more than halfway done, with polls showing that the Parti Québécois is still in the lead while the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec’s “Trump bump” thanks to the trade war is slowly fading away.

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Still, with a large proportion of Quebecers who remain undecided, it’s no wonder that the leaders of all five political parties were banking heavily on national debates to either solidify their base or attempt to sway voters to go in another direction.

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The first two debates, TVA Face-à-Face and Le Grand Débat des Chefs Noovo/Crave, took place Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

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Radio-Canada will hold the third and final debate on September 23.

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With PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, CAQ leader Christine Fréchette, Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard, Québec solidaire co-spokeperson Ruba Ghazal and Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime, the stage was quite crowded.

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While Fréchette was attacked on all sides in the first debate, shots were directed to St-Pierre Plamondon, the frontrunner, the second night. But the PQ leader remained calm, his team says, in part because he had a picture of his children right in front of him.

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Milliard, still a relatively unknown leader seven months into the job, managed to get in a few zingers about his main opponents, mainly about the debate on separation.

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So, what did the public learn during these first two nights? And could any of this move the needle as a very volatile Quebec electorate prepares to go to the polls?

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Change is increasingly becoming the ballot question

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In the TVA Face-à-Face, Fréchette used her opening statement to draw the line between her predecessor and herself.

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“I am not François Legault. I am Christine Fréchette, and I bring my own way of doing things,” she said, before following up with a plea to opt for stability and experience amid the “great uncertainty” of the trade war with the United States.

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Unsurprisingly, her pitch did not convince her opponents who have all been trying to pin the controversies of the past eight years of the CAQ government on the new premier.

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St-Pierre Plamondon even said during Le Grand Débat des Chefs Noovo/Crave that U.S. President Donald Trump isn’t the biggest threat to Quebec.

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“The biggest source of instability for the next four years would be another four years of a bad government that squanders public funds recklessly,” he said.

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St-Pierre Plamondon has been banking on Quebecers’ appetite for change, and polls are showing that it is a message that is percolating as Trump is less in the news cycle.

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A Léger poll published before the first debate showed that more than 60 per cent of Quebecers want a change in government and a new party to govern the province. In comparison, only 16 per cent of respondents said they do not want change.

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However, there is another sticky statistic that shows that 70 per cent of Quebecers do not support sovereignty. Despite this, the PQ is not budging from its pledge to hold a third referendum on separation — but only after Trump leaves office in 2029.

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Fréchette had slightly adjusted her messaging in time for the Noovo debate.

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“Let’s be honest: in recent years, the CAQ hasn’t been perfect. But we learned from that, and I have corrected past mistakes,” she said.

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“Tonight, and in the days ahead, we need to ask ourselves a very important question: is this really the time to add uncertainty with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s referendum? I will be working on your priorities, while he will be working on planning a referendum.”

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The PQ leader is reluctant to say the word ‘referendum’

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Milliard was the first person to note that St-Pierre Plamondon had pulled off the feat of not saying the word “referendum” one single time in the TVA Face-à-Face debate.

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The PQ leader instead found some colourful ways to describe the consultation process. “We must carve out space to reflect on our future if we want to ensure our long-term survival as a people,” he said at some point.

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Later, he said he is making “no secret” that he is in favour of Quebec separating from Canada, adding that he is a “proponent of independence.”

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St-Pierre Plamondon ended up saying the word near the end of the Noovo debate.

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“The Parti Québécois is committed to holding a consultation — a referendum — after the Trump era,” he said. The process is estimated to cost $130 million, he said.

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The idea of a referendum caused most of the other leaders to roll their eyes.

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“Let’s not waste $130 million just to suffer a third ‘Yes’ defeat on sovereignty,” said Duhaime, who has been in favour of separation in the past but now considers himself to be a Quebec “autonomist” within Canada.

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Despite his plan to eventually attempt to separate from Canada, St-Pierre Plamondon said during the TVA Face-à-Face he was ready to “collaborate” with Prime Minister Mark Carney and other provinces if he becomes premier on October 5.

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“That’s new,” chirped Milliard.

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St-Pierre Plamondon shot back that Milliard wants Carney to become his “boss.”

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The PQ leader claims that former PQ premiers were able to get many concessions from Ottawa during their time in office. That was notably the case for René Lévesque with Pierre Elliott Trudeau and Jacques Parizeau with Jean Chrétien, he said.

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St-Pierre Plamondon said he will work with Carney if and when it is in Quebec’s best interest. He also openly wondered if Fréchette had been consulted before Ottawa announced its plans to partly privatize its four major airports.

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Turns out, she wasn’t. But Fréchette said she’s not necessarily against the idea.

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Liberal leader claims he is only federalist on stage

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For days, Fréchette has been caught on the back foot on the issue of Quebec sovereignty. She has said she is not sovereigntist nor a federalist, but rather an “autonomist” who will fight against holding another referendum.

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“In our party, there are people who voted ‘Yes’ and people who voted ‘No.’ And what unites them today is that they do not want a referendum — and Quebecers do not want a referendum,” Fréchette said during the TVA Face-à-Face on Tuesday.

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“We need stability. A referendum would simply add a thick layer of uncertainty — on top of the economic uncertainty we are already immersed in because of Trump.”

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Milliard took the opportunity to press her further. “Why are you unable to answer that question? It is unbecoming of the position you hold.”

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“I am the only federalist here tonight,” he later claimed.

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Political analysts in Quebec have observed that the Parti Québécois leader has not been attacking Milliard very much because the PQ wants the Liberals to rise in the polls and to divide the vote with the CAQ especially in crucial Montreal suburbs.

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On the issue of sovereignty, the PQ leader told Milliard during the Noovo debate “at least the two of us aren’t hiding anything.” The Liberal leader agreed.

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“We have two leaders here dreaming of driving — one the ‘No’ bus, the other the ‘Yes’ bus — but the majority of Quebecers want those buses to stay in the garage,” said Duhaime during the TVA Face-à-Face debate.

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“I’m going to lock the doors, and the buses are staying in the garage.”

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Quebec Conservatives vow to hold balance of power

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St-Pierre Plamondon has vowed to cut taxes, red tape and wasteful spending, ideas that are very much music to the ears of Duhaime.

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“I am very pleased to hear Mr. Plamondon tonight, because he is speaking somewhat differently than he did during the last debate four years ago,” Duhaime said during the TVA Face-à-Face debate on Tuesday.

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“However, I want to ensure that the Conservatives are a strong force in the National Assembly, acting as a watchdog in case you veer off course and revert to your old habits,” he added.

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“I would respectfully submit that we share some common ground, as we are both criticizing the CAQ’s track record,” St-Pierre Plamondon replied.

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But he said both their parties are very different since the PQ would still invest in people to help seniors, those struggling with mental illnesses and to combat homelessness.

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Right now, the PQ is poised to form a minority government. But there are more than 20 ridings where the parties in first and second place are within three percentage points, according to Route127, a new projection website founded by a former CAQ aide.

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Many of these close races involve the PQ and are in the greater Montreal area, which show just how crucial the suburbs will be in determining the next government.

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Duhaime said, judging by the current polls, his party would hold the balance of power.

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“Quebecers aren’t ready to hand over the keys to the car to anyone.”

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National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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