Adam Zivo: Canada-Ukraine drone deal, exactly what our military needs

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Canada and Ukraine deepened their relationship on Thursday by signing a series of strategic partnerships primarily focused on defence. This is a good development, as the deal is structured in a way that will strengthen Ottawa’s military prowess, but more details are sorely needed to properly assess the full return-on-investment. 

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The enhanced alliance was announced in Calgary by Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is visiting Canada for three days. Their proposition was straightforward and commonsensical: both countries benefit by combining Canadian financing and manufacturing with Ukrainian technology and battlefield expertise. 

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Per the new deal, Ottawa and Kyiv will collaborate on the production of drones, counter-drone technologies and “uncrewed systems” (unmanned war robots). Such a partnership has the potential to rapidly modernize Canada’s arsenals, as four years of war have transformed Ukraine into a global leader in these domains, rivalled only by Russia. 

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Ukrainian drones and robots are now far more sophisticated and cost-efficient than their NATO-designed counterparts, and, furthermore, Ukrainian soldiers are uniquely experienced at deploying these assets. The advantage this confers cannot be overstated: recent war exercises have repeatedly ended with Ukrainian forces utterly dominating their NATO peers. 

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Western allies have been clamouring for Kyiv’s technological and strategic innovations, hoping that, through mimicry, they can turbocharge their own militaries. Over the summer, for example, the Ukrainians began exporting their drones to the United States and gave the United Kingdom access to data gathered from tens of thousands of drone flights, which will be used to train AI-enhanced systems that can resist electronic jamming. 

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If Carney’s deal secures similar — or more substantial — technology transfers, then it will be of immense value to Canada. Cheap and effective Ukrainian drones could revitalize a decrepit military burdened by broken and outdated equipment. They could be particularly useful for patrolling and defending our vast Arctic territories, whose sovereignty is increasingly under threat. 

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Yet, the news releases associated with Thursday’s deal are frustratingly vague and, if read carefully, suggest that Ukrainian technology may not be leveraged as intensely as some might assume. 

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In the short term, Ottawa will award $50 million in initial contracts to six Canadian suppliers, who will manufacture drones using domestic, British and Australian technology. The stated goal of this “first step” is to rapidly grow Canada’s drone arsenal — currently a paltry 2,000 units —  by a factor of ten. While this endeavour is commendable and arguably overdue, it ultimately does not leverage Ukrainian innovation. 

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As far as Ukrainian collaboration goes, Carney’s announcements are unspecific and contain only one concrete commitment: a partnership between General Dynamics Mission Systems-Canada and “Green Tech Harvest,” a Kyiv-based drone company.