Alberta Separatist Group Estimates Independence Transition at $5B

An Alberta separatist group estimates that the one-time cost of transitioning to an independent country would be about $5 billion, spread over roughly three years.

The Alberta Transition Council recently released its budget and costing report, estimating the one-time transition cost at $4.96 billion, or an average of about $1.65 billion annually over three years.

The council says the money would fund the systems, equipment, institutions, and other infrastructure Alberta would need to assume the functions of a sovereign state.

Once the transition is complete, the report estimates Alberta would incur an additional $3.63 billion in annual operating costs for sovereign functions.

The council’s $4.96 billion estimate does not include pensions, benefits, and other payments to Albertans, federal transfers Alberta currently receives, a potential negotiated share of Canada’s federal debt or federal assets, or defence equipment. The council says those items would depend on future policies or negotiations and therefore were not included in its transition-cost figure.

The council’s estimate is substantially lower than figures from two other recent analyses, while those reports use different parameters.

A report commissioned by the Alberta government and prepared by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy estimated that establishing an independent Alberta could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion during the first five years.

That report’s costs include new infrastructure, supplies and property, staffing for the transition and Alberta’s potential share of the federal debt. It estimates that Alberta could need at least 70,000 additional civil servants to take on federal functions.

The Canada West Foundation, a Calgary-based public policy think tank, has also estimated that establishing an independent Alberta would cost more than $200 billion, with ongoing costs exceeding $50 billion annually. Its analysis includes Alberta’s potential share of federal debt, debt-servicing costs, and the replacement of federal programs.

Spending Allocation

The Alberta Transition Council estimates a sovereign Alberta would spend $16.6 billion annually. That includes $11.59 billion in payouts to the public, such as pensions and benefits, rather than government operating costs.

Alberta would also continue spending $1.11 billion on existing provincial programs. Another $270.2 million would come from fees and levies, while $3.7 billion would come from dedicated revenue, including Employment Insurance premiums.

After accounting for those revenues, Alberta would need to raise $11.52 billion annually through taxation.

The report estimates Alberta would also lose $9.59 billion in federal transfers, including health and social transfers and health bilateral agreements.

Replacing those lost revenues would increase the amount Alberta would need to raise through taxation to $21.11 billion annually.

The report estimates Alberta would need about 14,000 new permanent employees and 1,300 temporary employees to perform sovereign functions during the transition.

About 6,200 permanent positions are detailed across government functions, while another 400 are listed as a broader domain total. The remaining roughly 7,500 would be concentrated in policing and corrections, border services, the revenue authority, and immigration. The defence estimate includes a territorial reserve of about 1,800 members.

The council says the estimates are based on the functions of an independent country, rather than Alberta’s share of existing federal employees or spending. It estimates the largest new workforces would be needed in areas such as policing, corrections, border services, social programs and revenue collection, which are largely federal responsibilities.

The report allocates about $1.29 billion of the $4.96 billion transition cost to capital spending, including systems, equipment, and laboratories.

The council excludes any potential share of Canada’s federal debt or assets, defence equipment, currency or liquidity support, and other costs dependent on future negotiations.

It estimates federal spending on First Nations and Métis programs in Alberta at $3.1 billion to $3.8 billion annually but excludes that from the transition budge, saying responsibility for those programs would depend on future agreements with First Nations governments.

Jennifer Cowan and The Canadian Press contributed to this report.